Friday, May 1, 2020

Nifty Weekly Outlook 02 May 2020

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Equity benchmarks concluded truncated monthly expiry week on a cheerful note underpinned by strong global cues. The Nifty ended the week at 9860, up 706 points or 7.7%. Nifty midcap performed in tandem with benchmarks as it rose over 6%, indicating broader market participation. Sectorally, financials, metal and IT relatively outperformed while pharma stocks took breather after recent run up.

The Nifty has seen sharp up move of ~1000 points over past seven sessions, leading daily stochastic to approach overbought territory with reading of 94, indicating possibility of temporary breather cannot be ruled out. However, we believe any temporary breather toward 9400 should not be construed as negative instead it should be capitalised as an incremental buying opportunity. In the process we expect catch up activity would be seen in midcap and small cap stocks.


Structurally, the formation of higher peak and trough on the weekly chart for fourth consecutive week, underpinned by broadening of sectoral participation (as cycliclas continued to outperform), signifies broad based participation in turn suggesting rejuvenation of market breadth that augurs well for durability of ongoing up move, which makes us confident to upgrade the support base at 9400.

Erstwhile resistance of 9400 would now change its role and act as a strong support as per change of polarity concept.
Hence any dip from hereon should be capitalized as incremental buying opportunity.


Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty ended the April month on an optimistic note and at the highest point for the month. Decline in the US Dollar index from 100.70 levels provided cushion to INR which appreciated sharply from 76.7 levels. Most of the private banks supported the up-move however, short covering was seen in PSU leader like SBI due to strengthening of INR. Rollover was above average where most of the private banks saw long rollovers for the May series. As the Bank Nifty moved above 21000 levels, closure was seen in ATM strike Call and the OI moved to 22000 strike. Huge OI blocks were seen in 22500 strike Call as well which can act as a supply zone. However, Put writers continued to move higher as the index rose and for the May series, OI build-up is seen at 20500 Put strike which should provide cushion.



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