Saturday, April 25, 2020

Nifty weekly outlook 25 April 2020

Nifty has broadly remained above crucial 8900 levels during the week which shows some resilience exhibited at higher levels. The currency also appreciated a bit towards the close of the week which supported the pullback from 8900 levels. FIIs selling has reduced significantly which has led to this consolidation. Buying is seen in sectors like FMCG and Pharma. The volatility cooled-off further to sub 40 levels which soothed the market sentiments. The start of result season has also led to more stock specific moves within a broader range of Nifty.

Technical Outlook
On the weekly chart, Nifty50 formed a Hanging Man pattern, potentially a bearish candlestick pattern. The index continued to consolidate within the prior week’s range while facing strong resistance at 9,350 level for most part of the week. The recent rally from the low of 7,500 has unfolded in the form of a Rising Wedge pattern, which was clearly evident on the daily timeframe chart, which is a bearish indication. A break below the 9,100 level will confirm the Rising Wedge breakdown and the index may retest the 8,800 level on the downside. Traders can initiate shorts for a break below 9,100 in Nifty50.




Bank Nifty -

Last week Nifty has managed to move and sustain above 9000 levels but under-performance was clearly visible in Bank Nifty which again slipped below 20000 levels. However, Bank Nifty traded in a broader range amidst high volatility. Sharp appreciation was seen in INR from its sizeable Call base of 77 with lower Crude Oil prices triggering positive sentiments for domestic equities. IV's have further contracted from 46 levels and it slipped below 40 levels which is a positive sign going forward. Absence of any major buying by the FII's in the cash segment are likely to keep the index move in check. Call OI blocks are seen in 20000, 20500 and 21000 strikes whereas Put OI base is seen at 18500 strike which remains the key support area for the upsides to continue. Rollover activities are likely to pick up which will trigger some intraday volatility going ahead.



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